Nifty Forecast/Outlook for 14th Feb 2018:
Nifty is expected to trade with mildly positive bias and volatility will be there in the market.
Index forms bullish pattern on 12th Feb 2018 after seeing 64 points gap up opening nifty ended above the opening price at 10,539 by gaining 84 points for the day after testing the 5-Day EMA placed at 10,566.
As nifty failed to cross the 5-Day EMA which will be acting as a resistance and any closing above 10,620 the 50-Day EMA will open the new uptrend after the recent sell off.
In the derivatives segment, FII’s selling continues as they have sold 1481 crores in index futures and also sold 759 crores in index options .Nifty futures is trading back into the premium by 4 points. After few days of decreasing open interest nifty futures we can see the increasing open interest but the option premium is still high which is suggesting volatility will be there in the days to come.
Still nifty cross 10,620 it’s a sell on rise market and one can adapt selling nifty near 10,600 and buying nifty near 10,400 with 100 points stoploss as nifty is currently trading in the range of 10400- 10600.
As said previously nifty for the past 2 years have rebounded from the 100-Day EMA which is currently placed at 10,400 which can be acting as strong support on closing bias.
Nifty target for tomorrow 14th Feb 2018:
As Nifty is expected to trade with a mildly positive bias, upside target of 10,600 are much possible with a down side target of 10,450 can’t be ruled out. Nifty supports are placed at 10,450 and 10400 whereas resistance are at 10,560 and 10622.
Nifty contributors and intraday movement of 12-Feb-2018.
Only 14 of 50 nifty stocks closed in the red. HCL and SBI are the top losers by 2.58% and Tata steel is the top gainer by gaining 4.06 %.
Opening: 10,518.20; High: 10,555.50; Low: 10,485.40 Closing Price: 10,539.75(+84.80)
Nifty 22 Feb 2018 Expiry Futures closed at 10,543.10 (+73.40)
Nifty Feb 2018 Expiry trading range: Nifty expected to trade between 10,400 -10,700 levels.
Positional Nifty Call for 22 Feb 2018 Expiry Strategies:
- Position Recommended on 27-Jan-2018: Buy Nifty 22 Feb 2018 11,000 PUT and sell two lots of 10,800 Put and buy one lot of 10,600 on Monday(i.e 29-Jan-2018) . Hold the position for target of 10,000 as the current premium outflow is just 22 points. Current Status : Profit book at Rs 2700.
Past performance on Nifty positional trades.
- Position Recommended on 25-OCT-2017: Initiate a pair trade by selling Nifty 30 Nov 2017 Futures around 10,325-10,350 and also buy Bank nifty Nov futures around 25,150 -25,200 levels. Hold the position for target of RS.20, 000 with stop around Rs. 10,000.Target achieved in 20 Days with a profit of Rs. 20,000.
- Position Recommended on 13-Dec-2017: Initiate a pair trade by Buying Nifty 28 Dec 2017 Futures and also Sell Bank nifty Dec futures by 9.20 AM on 13-Dec-2017,On 13 Dec 2017 Nifty was bought at 10,250 and bank nifty was sold at 25,160 levels. Hold the position for target of RS.15, 000 with stop around Rs.10, 000.Holding period 10-15 Days.Target Achieved on 18-Dec-17 in 6 days Rs. 15,000 profit.
- Position Recommended for 19-Dec-2017: Sell Nifty 25 Jan 2018 Futures 10,500 for a target of 10,300 with a stop around 10,620.Hold for 10-15 Days. Stop loss Triggered, Loss of 120 points.(i.e 9,000).
- Position Recommended on 28-Dec-2017: Initiate a pair trade by Buying Nifty 25 Jan 2018 Futures and also Sell Bank nifty Jan futures by 9.20 AM on 28-Dec-2017 and Hold the position for target of RS.15, 000 with stop around Rs.10,000. Nifty buying price @10,542 and bank nifty selling price @ 25,560. Booked Profit Rs.4500. as bank nifty is showing sign of strength.
Visit our website on 14-Feb-2018 9.30 PM to get the nifty view for 15-Feb-2018.