Nifty Forecast/Outlook for 16th Feb 2018:
Index forms doji pattern which means the opening and closing price are more or less at the same level after seeing the intraday volatility. Earlier nifty opened 37 points and went on to cross 10,600 to reach 10,618 but failed to sustain those levels to drift lower and ended the day at 10,545 by gaining 44 points for the day.
Nifty today tested the 50-Day EMA placed at 10,600 but failed to cross, but was able to close above 5-Day EMA after 10 days. Nifty needed to cross above 10,620 on closing basis to resume the uptrend.
In the derivatives segment, FII’s have bought 536 crores in index futures and also bought 3255 crores in index options .Nifty futures back trading in the premium by 6 points but increasing price is not supported by the open interest as it was falling. Suggesting long positions are getting unwinded.
Nifty is trading in a range 10400- 10600 so one can buy nifty around 10,400 and sell nifty near 10,600 till nifty closes above or below this range.
As said previously nifty for the past 2 years have rebounded from the 100-Day EMA which is currently placed at 10,406 which can be acting as strong support on closing bias.
Nifty target for tomorrow 16th Feb 2018:
Nifty upside target will be 10,600 and on the downside 10,480 levels can’t be ruled out. Nifty supports are placed at 10,500 and 10450 whereas resistance are at 10,560 and 10622.
Nifty contributors and intraday movement of 15-Feb-2018.
Only 27 of 50 nifty stocks closed in the green. Indiabulls housing is the top loser by 2.26% and Hindalco is the top gainer by gaining 3.39 %.
Opening: 10,537.90; High: 10,618.10; Low: 10,511.05 Closing Price: 10,545.50(+44.60)
Nifty 22 Feb 2018 Expiry Futures closed at 10,511.20 (+56.00)
Nifty Feb 2018 Expiry trading range: Nifty expected to trade between 10,400 -10,600 levels.
Positional Nifty Call for 22 Feb 2018 Expiry Strategies:
- Recommendation for 15-Feb-2018: Buy Nifty 22 Feb 2018 futures and Sell Bank Nifty 22 Feb 2018 futures for a target of 15,000 and stop loss of 7500. Hold the position for 10-15 days. Currently gaining by Rs 2000.
Past performance on Nifty positional trades.
- Position Recommended on 25-OCT-2017: Initiate a pair trade by selling Nifty 30 Nov 2017 Futures around 10,325-10,350 and also buy Bank nifty Nov futures around 25,150 -25,200 levels. Hold the position for target of RS.20, 000 with stop around Rs. 10,000.Target achieved in 20 Days with a profit of Rs. 20,000.
- Position Recommended on 13-Dec-2017: Initiate a pair trade by Buying Nifty 28 Dec 2017 Futures and also Sell Bank nifty Dec futures by 9.20 AM on 13-Dec-2017,On 13 Dec 2017 Nifty was bought at 10,250 and bank nifty was sold at 25,160 levels. Hold the position for target of RS.15, 000 with stop around Rs.10, 000.Holding period 10-15 Days.Target Achieved on 18-Dec-17 in 6 days Rs. 15,000 profit.
- Position Recommended for 19-Dec-2017: Sell Nifty 25 Jan 2018 Futures 10,500 for a target of 10,300 with a stop around 10,620.Hold for 10-15 Days. Stop loss Triggered, Loss of 120 points.(i.e 9,000).
- Position Recommended on 28-Dec-2017: Initiate a pair trade by Buying Nifty 25 Jan 2018 Futures and also Sell Bank nifty Jan futures by 9.20 AM on 28-Dec-2017 and Hold the position for target of RS.15, 000 with stop around Rs.10,000. Nifty buying price @10,542 and bank nifty selling price @ 25,560. Booked Profit Rs.4500. as bank nifty is showing sign of strength.
- Position Recommended on 27-Jan-2018: Buy Nifty 22 Feb 2018 11,000 PUT and sell two lots of 10,800 Put and buy one lot of 10,600 on Monday(i.e 29-Jan-2018) . Hold the position for target of 10,000 as the current premium outflow is just 22 points. Current Status : Profit book at Rs 2700.
Visit our website on 15-Feb-2018 9.30 PM to get the nifty view for 16-Feb-2018.